温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张滨  吕洁华 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):84-94

基于2001-2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。  相似文献   

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”     

于鑫  郑腾飞  万齐林  肖辉  刘显通  王婷 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):293-303

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.  相似文献   

基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

唐川  马国超 《地理科学》2015,(1)

以汶川县城周边区域为研究区,分别以栅格单元与地貌单元作为单位评价单元,以信息量法与逻辑回归法两种评价模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价分区。根据对评价结果的比较分析,在小区域范围内,基于地貌单元的区域易发性分区不仅仅能够更好地体现出区域内局部综合特性,而且评价分区结果与地质灾害实际分布情况更加吻合,分级层次更加明显,数学模型的适用效率很好。由此可见,在小范围区域内,基于地貌单元的地质灾害易发性评价分区具有良好的适用性与可塑性,在大比例尺地质灾害易发性和危险性制图中是一个有益的尝试与启发。  相似文献   

Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga)     

Zhang  Kui  Liu  Qun  Kalhoro  Muhsan Ali 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2015,14(3):557-563

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE) data(1975–2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore(Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises(CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. α is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.  相似文献   

三山岛北部海域金矿勘查工作思路与实践          下载免费PDF全文

刘殿浩  张丕建  丁正江  张军进  林大伟  马宾 《山东国土资源》2015,31(2):1-6,11

三山岛北部海域金矿床位于胶东西北部三山岛成矿带之中,为一严格受断裂构造控矿的超大型破碎带蚀变岩型金矿床。矿体全部赋存于滨海海域,具有规模大、延伸稳定、有用物质分布较均匀的特点。作为国家级首批整装勘查区的一部分,尤其是首次在浅海海域进行深部勘查,该区勘查工作受到了多方重视、关注和支持,在1年的时间里完成了主要靶区的详查工作。它首开我国浅海海域金矿勘查的先河,是在综合分析研究矿田成矿背景与找矿潜力的基础上开展的一次系统的、由预查开始直接完成详查的勘查活动,具有周期短、规模大、成果丰、效果好的特点,对我国以后海域固体矿产勘查工作具有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

水平井开发储层地质建模     

李莉娟  闫长辉  王涛 《物探化探计算技术》2011,33(6):612-615,573

水平井的开发技术关键之一是建立油气藏的精细三雏地质模型,据此可以确定明确的地质目标.常规的储层地质建模忽视了水平井与地层在空间上的独特配置关系,无法体现和充分利用其在表征储层属性空间展布特征上的优势.这里着重讲述了针对水平井开发的储层地质建模,引入了水平井储层概念模型,探讨了平面单元网格划分模式,并以塔河1区三叠系下油...  相似文献   

储层流动单元研究在油田老区挖潜中的应用——以吉林油田乾146区块开发为例     

苗长盛  董清水  张旗  崔大勇  许圣传  王敏雪 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2011,41(1):39-45

吉林油田乾146区块经多年开采,已经进入高含水、高采出阶段。通过储层流动单元研究,运用多参数模糊聚类方法将该区高台子油层由好至差划分为A、B、C、D、E 5类储层流动单元。查明了区内主要目的层系各含油小层的储层流动单元发育特征:40、39小层主要发育A、B类优质储层流动单元,42、41、38小层则以C、D、E类储层流动单元为主,各小层储层流动单元类型及展布与初始产能吻合度较高,表明储层流动单元类型的差异是控制本区油气分布的重要因素之一。综合油藏地质特征及油田开发动态数据,对各储层流动单元的注采渗流体系进行了深入剖析,归纳总结出乾146区块高台子油层XII砂组中剩余油分布的5条规律,据此在剩余油分布预测区部署了1口扩边井和2口老区加密井,投产后分别获得了11.2t/d、5.5t/d和8.6t/d的初始产能。  相似文献   

对国有地勘单位人力资源管理的对策建议     

段芳 《中国煤炭地质》2011,(7):74-76

近年来,国有地勘单位在改革发展中,人力资源管理方面普遍存在职工观念滞后、冗员较多、员工积极性不高、人才流失等问题。以总局管理下的某地勘单位为例,对国有地勘单位人力资源现状及存在的主要问题进行了梳理,总结提出了在当前环境下加强人力资源管理的对策及建议：强化人力资源管理意识,营造适宜人才发展的良好氛围;完善用人机制,加大人力资本投入;实施人力资源综合发展战略,设计合理的人才培训计划;深入体制改革,激发员工创新的积极性。  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000594     

Victor D. Mats  Tatiana I. Perepelova 《地学前缘(英文版)》2011,2(3):349-365

A new model is suggested for the history of the Baikal Rift,in deviation from the classic two-stage evolution scenario,based on a synthesis of the available data from the Baikal Basin and revised correlation between tectonic-lithological-stratigraphic complexes(TLSC) in sedimentary sections around Lake Baikal and seismic stratigraphic sequences(SSS) in the lake sediments.Unlike the previous models,the revised model places the onset of rifting during Late Cretaceous and comprises three major stages which are subdivided into several substages.The stages and the substages are separated by events of tectonic activity and stress reversal when additional compression produced folds and shear structures.The events that mark the stage boundaries show up as gaps,unconformities,and deformation features in the deposition patterns. The earliest Late Cretaceous-Oligocene stage began long before the India-Eurasia collision in a setting of diffuse extension that acted over a large territory of Asia.The NW-SE far-field pure extension produced an NE-striking half-graben oriented along an old zone of weakness at the edge of the Siberian craton.That was already the onset of rift evolution recorded in weathered lacustrine deposits on the Baikal shore and in a wedge-shaped acoustically transparent seismic unit in the lake sediments.The second stage spanning Late Oligocene-Early Pliocene time began with a stress change when the effect from the Eocene India-Eurasia collision had reached the region and became a major control of its geodynamics.The EW and NE transpression and shear from the collisional front transformed the Late Cretaceous half-graben into a U-shaped one which accumulated a deformed layered sequence of sediments.Rifting at the latest stage was driven by extension from a local source associated with hot mantle material rising to the base of the rifted crust.The asthenospheric upwarp first induced the growth of the Baikal dome and the related change from finer to coarser molasse deposition.With time,the upwarp became a more powerful stress source than the collision,and the stress vector returned to the previous NW-SE extension that changed the rift geometry back to a half-graben. The layered Late Pliocene-Quaternary subaerial tectonic-lithological-stratigraphic and the Quaternary submarine seismic stratigraphic units filling the latest half-graben remained almost undeformed.The rifting mechanisms were thus passive during two earlier stages and active during the third stage. The three-stage model of the rift history does not rule out the previous division into two major stages but rather extends its limits back into time as far as the Maastrichtian.Our model is consistent with geological, stratigraphic,structural,and geophysical data and provides further insights into the understanding of rifting in the Baikal region in particular and continental rifting in general.  相似文献   

基于DTU的加速度强振动记录终端的设计     

吴林斌  陈志高  关伟智  吕瀚  李家明  吴雄伟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2011,31(Z1):155-156,164

设计基于DTU的强振记录终端,采用SOC系列C8051F015型单片机对MEMS加速度计的输出信号进行A/D转换,监测待测体所经受的强振加速度值,并通过DTU内嵌的GPRS无线网络通讯方式将数据发送到远程数据中心.该系统具有体积小,安装与操作方便,免维护等特性.  相似文献